No Surprises THIS Year; An All-MPSF Final Four at 2021 NCAA Women’s Water Polo Championship

An Olympic year in women’s water polo typically allows a non-Mountain Pacific Sports Federation team to slip into the semifinals on the NCAA women’s national championship. With all the top American women tethered to the U.S. national team, the rest of the country has a fighting chance to overcome the MPSF—and other teams—and make a run for a title.

In 2016, Michigan powered its way to a fourth-place finish, beating Arizona State in the quarterfinals before losing to eventual champs USC in the semis.

Same thing in 2012, when UC Irvine beat Loyola Marymount to get into the semis, only to be dispatched by the Trojans, who would lose to Stanford in the final.

In 2016, four MPSF teams went to the tournament: Arizona State, Stanford, UCLA and USC. In 2012, only three went—Stanford, UCLA and USC. All three were in the final four. Only one team not in the MPSF—the Lions of LMU—has made it to the national championship match. USC beat LMU 10-8 in 2004, another Olympic year.

When the Olympians are away, opponents of the world’s best water polo conference have a puncher’s shot at getting to a semifinal, and—once in a millenium—a final.

Not this year. Despite so many top American athletes absent in preparation for the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, this year’s national championship offers an exact replay of the 2021 MPSF championships that took place two weeks ago. And, it will be shocking if USC, the MPSF winner, does not win NCAAs.

Your MPSF Redux matchups are…

Yesterday, #1 USC swamped Marist 24-5; one of only two Olympians (barring injury) in the tournament, Maud Megens, had four goals and an assist. Stanford, the #2 seed, held off a late Fresno State rally to win 16-9, with Sarah Klass scoring four times. UCLA had to rally from 2-0 deficit to beat Hawai’i 12-7. The Bruins reeled off four straight goals in the second period and won going away behind balanced scoring from Val Ayala, Katrina Drake, Ava Johnson, Lexi Liebowitz and Brooke Maxson.

In the only competitive match of the day, Arizona State—featuring Bente Rogge, like Megens a Dutch Olympic team member—used an eight-goal explosion over the second and third periods to take a 9-3 lead, then held on for a 9-5 win over Michigan.

Today’s parings: the Sun Devils face the Trojans at 6 p.m. EDT, while Stanford will take on host UCLA at 8 p.m. In the MPSF tournament, ASU lost to USC 16-8; the Cardinal beat the Bruins 13-8. And, the Trojans took their third-straight MPSF title, beating Stanford 9-6 behind a Megens hat trick.

There’s little reason to believe the outcome this weekend at Speiker Aquatic Center will be different. There’s no one like Megens in the water—in some respects it’s amazing that she’s even in America right now. Dutch HC Arno Havenga obviously feels strongly that playing in America is a plus for his young stars Megens and Rogge.

[On The Record with Arno Havenga, Dutch Head Women’s Water Polo Coach]

The repeat of the MPSF invites the observation: is this bad for women’s water polo in America. My answer is: of course not. The fact that this tournament is happening is a huge boon for the sport—even if the NCAA was wrong to keep the fans out (and there will be limited tickets available for friends + families at tomorrow’s final).

What is disappointing is that in an Olympic year, a team such as Michigan or Hawai’i did not have the firepower to break through the MPSF monopoly—which means next year, there will be no stopping the greatest water polo show (for women) on the planet.

Can you bet against UCLA at home—even without fans?

The only wildcard is how the Bruins show at home against a Stanford squad that they’ve beaten one and lost to twice this year—including a five goal loss in MPSFs. If one believes that defense wins championships—which I do—you might think that UCLA can win this semifinal match-up. Adam Wright’s teams have been known for their defensive prowess—though this year the Bruins gave up 12, 10 and 13 goals to a Cardinal attack absent Aria and Mackenzie Fischer and Ryann Neushul, last of the fabulous Neushul sisters.

[UCLA’s Adam Wright: When We Come Out of This We’ll Be Better for It]

What might encourage UCLA fans is that Wright has assembled a squad of scorers to diversify his offense. But, Stanford boasts a (as always) deep squad, powered by Klass, Chloe Harbilas and freshman sensation Jewel Roemer as well as Emalia Eichelberger, the country’s premier goalie.

Oh, and John Tanner, who’s the best in the business (bar none in collegiate water polo).

To catch all of today’s semifinal action, please click here for NCAA.com.